poppies
Matt Waldman, Policy and Advocacy Adviser, Oxfam International, Afghanistan, “Afghanistan: Development and Humanitarian Priorities,” Oxfam Report, January 31, 2008
In 2007 the cultivation of poppy and production of opium was up on 2006 by 17% and 34% respectively.


Devolution good
Strengthening the central government is a lost cause – causes indelible fractures
Deepa Ollapally, Program Officer, Special Initiative on the Muslim World, US Institute of Peace, USIP Special Report No. 105, April 2003, http://www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/sr105.html
In this view, it is important that the international community also deal with the sub-national areas of the

Larry Goodson, professor of Middle East Studies at the U.S. Army War College, “Afghanistan’s Long Road to Reconstruction,” Journal of Democracy Volume 14, Number 1, January 2003
A third problem is the resurgence of the warlords. The U.S. decision to pay them—a time-honored tradition

Jeffrey Rhinefield, Lieutenant, United States Navy, B.S., Jacksonville University, 1998, Master’s Thesis at the Naval Postgraduate School, March, 2006, http://www.stormingmedia.us/16/1655/A165544.html
In addition, tribal politics and tribal structures impact the way in which people view the central government

Haroun Mir, former aide to the late Ahmad Shah Massoud, Afghanistan's former defense minister, and policy analyst for International Affairs Forum, Asia Times, July 3, 2007, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IG03Df01.html
As a result of dysfunctional administration, President Hamid Karzai is losing the broad popular support and

Ali Ahmad Jalali, Distinguished Professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies of the National Defense University and former Interior Minister of Afghanistan, Parameters, Spring 2006
The recent parliamentary elections, held on a non-party basis, led to the emergence of a politically


Troops
Michael Scheuer, Senior Fellow with The Jamestown Foundation and former Chief of the bin Laden Unit at the Counterterrorist Center in the CIA, 3-5-08, http://www.jamestown.org/news_details.php?news_id=309
Potentially more damaging to Musharraf’s effort to right the ship, however, is the rising resentment among

William Arkin, Policy Fellow at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, 2-28-08, http://blog.washingtonpost.com/earlywarning/2008/02/why_a_surge_isnt_right_for_afg.html
And on the surface, a new clear-and-hold strategy, combined with more effective operations in Pakistan,

C. Christine Fair, Senior Research Associate, Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention, US Institute of Peace, Nicholas Howenstein, and J. Alexander Their, “Troubles on the Pakistan-Afghanistan Border,” December 2006, http://www.usip.org/pubs/usipeace_briefings/2006/1207_pakistan_afghanistan_border.html
Several panelists agreed that Pakistan must bring FATA into Pakistan's mainstream. This involves doing

Dr. Peter Middlebrook, former World Bank adviser to the government of Afghanistan in the development of the Afghanistan National Development Strategy, and Sharon Miller, former adviser to the chief economic adviser to the Afghan president, “All along the watch tower,” Asia Times, December 12, 2006, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HL12Df07.html
The anti-terrorist agenda is in essence no longer a state-to-state agenda (although it may have many of these

Ernie Regehr, Adjunct Associate Professor in Peace and Conflict Studies at Conrad Grebel University College, University of Waterloo, July 30, 2007, http://www.igloo.org/disarmingconflict/rethinki
In other words, the challenge of that we call “the Taliban” is focused less on irrational fanaticism than on

Rory Stewart, Chief Executive of the Turquoise Mountain Foundation in Kabul, served in the British Foreign Office in Indonesia, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan and Iraq, Examination of Witnesses before the British House of Commons, March 27, 2007, http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200607/cmselect/cmdfence/408/7032706.htm
I, of course, am very worried at the idea of investing more in this operation because I think that had we tried

Dr. Sean Maloney, teaches in the Royal Military College War Studies Programme, “Afghanistan Four Years On: An Assessment,” Parameters, Autumn 2005
A simplistic analysis would have us believe that the main encumbrances to stability and peace in Afghanistan

Carl Robichaud program officer and director of the Afghanistan Watch program at The Century Foundation,
Overstaying Our Welcome in Afghanistan?, May 26, 2006, http://www.tcf.org/list.asp?type=NC&pubid=1013
Karzai is not the first to voice skepticism about the U.S. military's long-term role in the region. To many

Benjamin Friedman, doctoral candidate in political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Foreign Policy, July, 2007, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3907
The conventional wisdom about failed states conflates counterterrorism with state-building, an error that relies on

Zalmay Khalilzad, special presidential envoy and ambassador to Afghanistan, National Interest, Summer, 2005
4) The United States must size and configure its footprint to avoid creating unnecessary friction or over-

Paul Rogers, professor of peace studies at Bradford University, November 23, 2006, http://www.opendemocracy.net/conflict/afghanistan_4123.jsp
The anticipation of a relatively quiet period during the 2006-07 winter has apparently influenced British strategists

Subodh Ata, independent foreign affairs analyst, At a Crossroads in Afghanistan Should the United States Be Engaged in Nation Building?, September 24, 2003, http://www.cato.org/pubs/fpbriefs/fpb81.pdf
Insecurity and infighting among warlords are not the only impediments to a successful nation-building effort

Military victory is key to hearts and minds – not the other way around
The Herald, 12-24-07, http://www.theherald.co.uk/features/editorial/display.var.1924546.0.The_Afghan_conflict.php
The next year in Afghanistan will be make-or-break time for Nato as a military alliance and the increasingly


US should get out of afghanistan
Very good article
Rory Stewart, Chief Executive of the Turquoise Mountain Foundation in Kabul, served in the British Foreign Office in Indonesia, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan and Iraq, International Herald Tribune, July 23, 2007
NATO's failures in the south should serve as warnings to those who would reinvigorate Western efforts here;

Rory Stewart, Chief Executive of the Turquoise Mountain Foundation in Kabul, served in the British Foreign Office in Indonesia, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan and Iraq, New York Times, March 27, 2007
We must acknowledge the limits of our power and knowledge in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere and

Subodh Ata, independent foreign affairs analyst, At a Crossroads in Afghanistan Should the United States Be Engaged in Nation Building?, September 24, 2003, http://www.cato.org/pubs/fpbriefs/fpb81.pdf
To assess the future of American policy in nations such as Afghanistan and Iraq, U.S. offi- cials would do


Counterinsurgency fails
Gregory Foster, professor at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces, National Defense University, In These Times, August, 2007
Is the military operationally competent? If by that we mean can it successfully accomplish all it is called


Pakistan
James Dobbins, Director, International Security and Defense Policy Center, Rand, Hearing of the House Armed Services Committee, Federal News Service, January 30, 2007
Yet if Pakistan is the central front of the war on terror, it's not one susceptible to a military response. We're not

Barnett Rubin, Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation of New York University, Foreign Affairs, January/February, 2007
The United States tolerated the quiet reconstitution of the Taliban in Pakistan as long as Islamabad granted basing

Barnett Rubin, director of studies and a senior fellow at the Center on International Cooperation at New York University, and Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, Council on Foreign Relations, October 6, 2006, http://www.cfr.org/publication/11620/
You’ve been a specialist in the field of Afghanistan and that part of the world for nearly a quarter of a century. Where does

Mashhad
, BBC Monitoring South Asia, January 3, 2008
Afghan and Pakistani tribal leaders from the two sides of the Durand Line held a meeting in eastern

Amin Saikal, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University, “Securing Afghanistan’s Border,” Survival, Spring, 2006
Although the Musharraf government is certainly better positioned than its Afghan counterpart to address

Amin Saikal, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University, “Securing Afghanistan’s Border,” Survival, Spring, 2006
Pakistan is better positioned than Afghanistan to enhance the security of the border, but is faced with severe

Dr. Peter Middlebrook, former World Bank adviser to the government of Afghanistan in the development of the Afghanistan National Development Strategy, and Sharon Miller, former adviser to the chief economic adviser to the Afghan president, “All along the watch tower,” Asia Times, December 12, 2006, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HL12Df07.html
Furthermore, as 80-90% of the actual Durand Line essentially follows clearly demarcated watershed and

ISA Consulting, August 6, 2007, http://www.isaintel.com/site/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=62
Despite the facts on the ground in Pakistan's tribal regions, unilateral US strikes would have consequences

Lisa Curtis, Senior Research Fellow for South Asia in the Asian Studies Center, and James Phillips, Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at Heritage, October 15, 2007, http://www.heritage.org/Research/MiddleEast/bg2076.cfm
While Pakistan's willingness to go back on the military offensive in the tribal areas is welcome, Islamabad's efforts


Counter-terrorism
Vanni Cappelli, president of the Afghanistan Foreign Press Association, Orbis, Vol 49, Issue 4, Autumn 2005
Of equal importance is solving the thorny Pashtunistan question. There will be no peace on the frontier until

Nathaniel Fick, fellow at the Center for a New American Security, Washington Post, August 12, 2007
The academy's final lesson is that tactical success in a vacuum guarantees nothing. Just as it did in Vietnam,

Paddy Ashdown, former British high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, The Guardian, July 19, 2007
I recently had a rather heated conversation with a government minister who assured me that we were winning

Barnett Rubin, director of studies and a senior fellow at the Center on International Cooperation at New York University, and Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, Council on Foreign Relations, October 6, 2006, http://www.cfr.org/publication/11620/
There have been some NATO military achievements in Afghanistan recently, haven’t there? Our military

Ali Ahmad Jalali, Distinguished Professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies of the National Defense University and former Interior Minister of Afghanistan, Parameters, Spring 2006
Security continues to be a prerequisite for political development and economic growth. Security cannot be


Russia
Elizabeth Skinner, Senior Research Associate in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, Strategic Insight: Russia and Eurasia, Enduring Freedom for Central Asia? April 2, 2002, http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/rsepResources/si/apr02/russia.pdf
The Putin administration has given its full support to operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan. Russian

Subodh Ata, independent foreign affairs analyst, At a Crossroads in Afghanistan Should the United States Be Engaged in Nation Building?, September 24, 2003, http://www.cato.org/pubs/fpbriefs/fpb81.pdf
The ousting of the Taliban regime has not altered the tendency of neighboring states to meddle in Afghan

S. Frederick Starr, Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Foreign Affairs, July/August, 2005
Both China and Russia view the current ambiguous situation with apprehension. The establishment of the

Alec Rasizade, senior associate at the Historical Research Center in Washington, previously at the Harriman Institute of Columbia University and the CSIS, Alternatives, Volume 1, number 1, Summer, 2002
As a consequence, Russia's role as Central Asia's principal security manager is under threat. Moscow was

Marvin Weinbaum, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and former analyst for Pakistan and Afghanistan in the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, “Afghanistan and its Neighbors: An Ever Dangerous Neighborhood,” US Institute of Peace, June, 2006
Another grouping of countries, the Shanghai Organization for Security and Cooperation, deals with concerns


Heg
Adding troops widens the conflict, kills readiness, and causes public isolationism
Colonel Vincent Dreyer, “Retooling the Nation-Building Strategy in Afghanistan,” submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the U.S. Army War College, February 28, 2006
Most critics of the current strategy contend that it is woefully under-resourced, or that the ways employed do not adequately address the fundamental requirements of nation-


NATO
Afghanistan not key – dozens of other threats to NATO
Ian Davis, consultant for the British American Security Information Council, 3-21-08, http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5086
Changes to the strategy in Afghanistan and a new Strategic Concept are both urgently needed if NATO is

No threat of NATO collapse from lack of European deployments – it’s a good balance
Robert Kaplan, fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, New York Times, 3-27-08
Let’s face it, the threat of a Taliban comeback in Afghanistan is not of the same order as the threat Germany faced

Failure in Afghanistan is irrelevant to NATO
Bahlol Lohdi, 12-19-07, http://www.antiwar.com/orig/lohdi.php?articleid=12074
A final assumption that must be discarded, before moving on to consider the factors essential for a viable

Afghan failure ensures total NATO collapse
Jon Hemming, 12-19-07, http://www.reuters.com/article/featuredCrisis/idUSISL190590
The 38-nation NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan is already hobbled